I… or rather, Atheist Steve… took the kid to task. Atheist Steve had heard Pascal’s Wager many times before from his Christian friends and was having none of it.
Today I want to take a look at Pascal’s Wager ... and ask whether it is of any use.
The Wager:
Pascal’s Wager is a logic exercise proposed by philosopher and mathematician Blaise Pascal. The popular form looks at the risk vs reward structure of belief vs. disbelief in God. It breaks down like this:
Scenario 1: If you believe, and God is real, you gain a virtuous life and heaven.
Scenario 2: If you believe, and God is not real, you at least led a virtuous and happy life before you cease to exist.
Scenario 3: If you disbelieve, and God is real, you gained some pleasures of the world, but must suffer hellfire.
Scenario 4: If you disbelieve, and God is not real, you gained some pleasures of the world before you cease to exist.
Given these four scenarios, the Christian Apologist asserts the most rational choice is to believe – as there is so much to gain and so little to lose.
[Strangely enough, I once had a Baptist Pastor present to me a form of Pascal’s Wager regarding why I should leave Catholicism. I said I was hopeful his relationship with Christ would land him in Heaven. He was not shy about saying my Catholic beliefs would send me to hell. So, he concluded, I should go with the safer option.]
A Bad Bet:
As I mentioned above, Atheist Steve’s response was mostly annoyance. There are numerous problems with presenting the Wager to a person identifying as an Atheist. Here are a few:
Not an Argument for God
The first issue is that the Wager isn’t a proper argument for the existence of God. It is a calculation about risks involved in believing vs not believing – but says nothing about whether those beliefs would be true.
So if you are discussing God’s existence with a person who is interested in the truth of the matter… the Wager comes off as the ultimate non-answer. A surrender on the front of truth and a retreat to the bunker of probability.
Insincerity Counts?
This second problem is often misunderstood.
Atheist Steve retorted to the student that Christianity demands more than a probabilistic belief in God. Surely the Creator would know whether or not someone is a true believer versus a man hedging his bets. Or perhaps is the Atheist being asked to live a lie in hopes of fooling God?
On the other hand, the Christian apologist can acknowledge this problem. However, he can note that the Risk vs Reward calculation is just an entryway into the world of faith – not a finish line. The hope is the insincere hedging would eventually turn into true belief as God grace works on the person's soul. But unless this is made clear, the Christian Apologist can make God look cynical and dumb.
Which God?
Lastly, the Wager might have made sense in a Christian mono-culture, but that’s not what we have today.
Just take the choice between Christianity and Islam. Both religions assert it isn’t enough to believe in some bland concept of God. Islam would have you recognize Mohammad as God’s prophet. Christianity has you recognize Jesus as God incarnate. Both groups condemn the other’s beliefs.
Thus, Atheist Steve noted that it isn’t a binary option between God and disbelieve. As soon as you get out of the realm of disbelieve, you are confronted with a menu of contradictory religious options. So which God am I betting on?
The wager itself is silent on that rather crucial detail.
All Bets Are Off:
Let’s conclude. Is Pascal’s Wager useful in any context?
Certainly not with a person who self-identifies as an Atheist. That fella is usually confident there is no good reason to believe in God – and is rather comfortable in his non-belief.
To him, believing in God on the chance He will let you into Heaven … is like believing in the tooth fairy just in case she gives you money. It’s just not gunna happen. Instead, the Christian Apologist should focus on the arguments for the existence of God or the philosophical ramifications of materialism.
The one place where the Wager might be of use is a person who believes Christianity has the most going for it – as far as religions go – but is on the fence. In that case, Pascal’s Wager might be a good way of saying:
“All things considered, it's more rational to dive in. Who knows what you'll find.”
The wager also makes a big assumption. And that is that the atheist in question is not going to live a virtuous life. On the flipside that the Christian will live a virtuous life.
ReplyDelete